Modelling the effects of stratigraphical uncertainty on fault seal and trap-fill in faulted structures

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doi: 10.1144/1354-079305-683
Authors:Clarke, S. M.; Littler, M.; Burley, S. D.; Williams, G. D.; Hughes, D.; Coogan, S.
Author Affiliations:Primary:
Keele University, Basin Dynamics Research Group, Keele, United Kingdom
Other:
Basin Dynamics, United Kingdom
Volume Title:Petroleum Geoscience
Source:Petroleum Geoscience, 12(2), p.143-156. Publisher: Geological Society Publishing House for EAGE (European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, London, United Kingdom. ISSN: 1354-0793
Publication Date:2006
Note:In English. 39 refs.; illus.
Summary:A three-dimensional approach to migration modelling through faulted structures is described that allows the effects of stratigraphical uncertainty on potential hydrocarbon accumulations to be assessed. Deterministic, three-dimensional fault seal analysis typically produces results that are extremely sensitive to input parameters such as structural architecture and stratigraphical variation. These parameters can be amongst the most poorly defined of modelling inputs because subsurface structural detail and stratigraphical variation are often below the limit of seismic resolution and are not sampled by well data. The new technique is fully integrated with three-dimensional fault seal analysis and hydrocarbon flow pathway modelling to give a workflow that predicts the likelihood of fault-controlled hydrocarbon accumulations, given these uncertainties. Multiple deterministic realizations of the model are used to highlight specific uncertainties in stratigraphy to which predicted hydrocarbon accumulations are sensitive. The results of these realizations are incorporated into, and used to condition, a stochastic model to risk predicted accumulations based on their likelihood of occurrence and volume. This technique has many advantages over either purely deterministic or purely stochastic approaches. A single deterministic realization places over-optimistic faith in the accuracy of the geological model because of the high sensitivity of fault seal analysis to input parameters. Multiple realizations allow specific input parameter uncertainties to be investigated, and the resulting common traps can be considered low risk, but accumulations exclusive to individual realizations cannot be risked. Moreover, a purely stochastic simulation based on all uncertainties will, at best, reduce efficiency by modelling uncertainties to which the result is insensitive or, at worst, may bias results with geologically implausible, stochastically-generated trials.
Sections:Petrology
Subsections:Sedimentary petrology
Subjects:Characterization; Data processing; Faults; Geometry; Graphic display; Migration; Numerical models; Offshore; Paleozoic; Permian; Petroleum; Petroleum accumulation; Petroleum exploration; Prediction; Reservoir rocks; Rotliegendes; Sealing; Stochastic processes; Three-dimensional models; Traps; Uncertainty; Upper Permian; Visualization; Zechstein; Atlantic Ocean; North Atlantic; North Sea
Abstract Numbers:06M/2527
Record ID:2007053288
Copyright Information:GeoRef, Copyright 2019 American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from The Geological Society, London, London, United Kingdom
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040 |a ViAlAGI  |c ViAlAGI 
072 7 |a 29A  |2 georeft 
100 1 |a Clarke, S. M.  |e analytic author  |u Keele University, Basin Dynamics Research Group, Keele 
245 1 0 |a Modelling the effects of stratigraphical uncertainty on fault seal and trap-fill in faulted structures 
300 |a p. 143-156 
500 |a In English. 39 refs. 
500 |a Abstract number: 06M/2527 
500 |a Category Section: Petrology 
500 |a Category Subsection: Sedimentary petrology 
500 |a Affiliation: Keele University, Basin Dynamics Research Group; Keele; GBR; United Kingdom 
500 |a Affiliation: Basin Dynamics; ; GBR; United Kingdom 
500 |a Key title: Petroleum Geoscience 
500 |a Source note: Petroleum Geoscience, 12(2), p.143-156. Publisher: Geological Society Publishing House for EAGE (European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, London, United Kingdom. ISSN: 1354-0793 
500 |a Publication type: journal article 
504 |b 39 refs. 
510 3 |a GeoRef, Copyright 2019 American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from The Geological Society, London, London, United Kingdom 
520 |a A three-dimensional approach to migration modelling through faulted structures is described that allows the effects of stratigraphical uncertainty on potential hydrocarbon accumulations to be assessed. Deterministic, three-dimensional fault seal analysis typically produces results that are extremely sensitive to input parameters such as structural architecture and stratigraphical variation. These parameters can be amongst the most poorly defined of modelling inputs because subsurface structural detail and stratigraphical variation are often below the limit of seismic resolution and are not sampled by well data. The new technique is fully integrated with three-dimensional fault seal analysis and hydrocarbon flow pathway modelling to give a workflow that predicts the likelihood of fault-controlled hydrocarbon accumulations, given these uncertainties. Multiple deterministic realizations of the model are used to highlight specific uncertainties in stratigraphy to which predicted hydrocarbon accumulations are sensitive. The results of these realizations are incorporated into, and used to condition, a stochastic model to risk predicted accumulations based on their likelihood of occurrence and volume. This technique has many advantages over either purely deterministic or purely stochastic approaches. A single deterministic realization places over-optimistic faith in the accuracy of the geological model because of the high sensitivity of fault seal analysis to input parameters. Multiple realizations allow specific input parameter uncertainties to be investigated, and the resulting common traps can be considered low risk, but accumulations exclusive to individual realizations cannot be risked. Moreover, a purely stochastic simulation based on all uncertainties will, at best, reduce efficiency by modelling uncertainties to which the result is insensitive or, at worst, may bias results with geologically implausible, stochastically-generated trials. 
650 7 |a Characterization  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Data processing  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Faults  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Geometry  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Graphic display  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Migration  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Numerical models  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Offshore  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Paleozoic  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Permian  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Petroleum  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Petroleum accumulation  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Petroleum exploration  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Prediction  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Reservoir rocks  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Rotliegendes  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Sealing  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Stochastic processes  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Three-dimensional models  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Traps  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Uncertainty  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Upper Permian  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Visualization  |2 georeft 
650 7 |a Zechstein  |2 georeft 
651 7 |a Atlantic Ocean  |2 georeft 
651 7 |a North Atlantic  |2 georeft 
651 7 |a North Sea  |2 georeft 
700 1 |a Littler, M.,  |e analytic author 
700 1 |a Burley, S. D.,  |e analytic author 
700 1 |a Williams, G. D.,  |e analytic author 
700 1 |a Hughes, D.,  |e analytic author 
700 1 |a Coogan, S.,  |e analytic author 
773 0 |t Petroleum Geoscience  |d London : Geological Society Publishing House for EAGE (European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, May 2006  |x 1354-0793  |n Petroleum Geoscience, 12(2), p.143-156. Publisher: Geological Society Publishing House for EAGE (European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, London, United Kingdom. ISSN: 1354-0793 Publication type: journal article  |g Vol. 12, no. 2  |h illus. 
856 |u urn:doi: 10.1144/1354-079305-683